Executive Summary
Agriculture stocks showed mixed performance during the first week of December 2025, with the sector continuing to navigate a complex landscape of commodity price pressures, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand patterns. While major agricultural stocks demonstrated relative stability, the week was characterized by cautious trading as investors assessed ongoing challenges including weak farm equipment demand, compressed commodity margins, and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations. The agricultural sector’s performance this week reflected a market in transition, with companies positioning themselves for what many analysts expect to be a cyclical trough before potential recovery in 2026.
Major Stock Performance Highlights
Deere & Company (DE)
Deere closed at $483.03 on December 4, representing a modest gain of 0.25%, though the stock remained well below its 52-week high of $533.78. The agricultural equipment giant has been trading in a consolidation range following its late-November earnings disappointment that sent shares tumbling.
Deere’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results showed agricultural segment revenues declining more than 20%, with operating profit plunging approximately 89% to just $25 million due to heavy margin pressure from tariffs and higher costs. The company faces a projected $1.2 billion tariff headwind in 2026, creating significant uncertainty about near-term profitability.
Despite these challenges, Deere demonstrated its commitment to shareholders this week. On December 3, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, payable February 9, 2026, representing a 10.2% increase from the previous quarter. The dividend announcement signals management’s confidence in the company’s long-term cash generation capabilities even amid cyclical weakness.
The stock’s valuation presents an interesting dynamic for investors. Deere trades at approximately 25 times earnings, meaningfully above its long-term median around the high-teens and above many peers in the farm and heavy construction machinery industry. However, analyst models suggest revenue will fall from $45.7 billion in fiscal 2025 to about $41.2 billion in fiscal 2026 before rebounding to approximately $44.7 billion in fiscal 2027, indicating that 2026 likely represents the cyclical bottom.
Corteva (CTVA)
Corteva closed at $66.00 on December 5, down 0.44% for the day, continuing its sideways trading pattern in the low-to-mid $60s range. The agricultural inputs company has been consolidating since announcing strategic restructuring plans earlier in the fall.
The company’s strategic transformation continues to be a focal point for investors. Corteva revealed plans to separate its seed and crop protection businesses into two independent publicly traded companies by 2026, aiming to unlock shareholder value through more focused operations. This announcement initially created volatility, but the stock has since stabilized as investors assess the potential benefits of the split.
Corteva reported third-quarter 2025 earnings with an EPS of negative $0.23, beating analyst estimates of negative $0.51, while revenue of $2.62 billion exceeded expectations by 5.65%. More importantly, the company raised full-year operating EBITDA guidance to $3.8-3.9 billion representing 14% growth, and operating EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.35 representing 28% growth at midpoint. These upward revisions provided support for the stock despite broader sector headwinds.
Looking ahead, Corteva projects operating EBITDA of $4.1 billion for 2026, with upcoming product launches including hybrid wheat technology expected to drive future growth. The agricultural technology pipeline remains robust, though success will depend on farmer adoption rates amid constrained farm income.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
ADM closed at $59.80 on December 3, trading near the lower end of its recent range. The agricultural commodities processor continues to face headwinds from weak crush margins and declining commodity prices that have pressured profitability throughout 2025.
ADM reported quarterly earnings of $0.92 EPS, topping consensus estimates of $0.89 by $0.03, though revenue of $20.37 billion came in below the consensus estimate of $20.96 billion. The revenue shortfall reflects ongoing pressure from declining commodity prices, even as the company managed to maintain cost discipline.
The stock has shown resilience on a longer-term basis. ADM has posted a roughly 20% gain over the past year, despite weaker multi-year returns, suggesting that investors are beginning to price in potential recovery as commodity markets stabilize. However, with the stock trading at approximately $59.36, some analysts view it as trading at a significant premium to fair value estimates around $29, highlighting valuation concerns among more bearish observers.
The company’s diversification strategy provides some insulation from agricultural cycle volatility. ADM’s nutrition segment and renewable diesel operations offer growth avenues beyond traditional grain merchandising and oilseed crushing, though all segments have felt pressure from the challenging agricultural economy in 2025.
Bunge Global (BG)
Bunge’s recent merger with Viterra has transformed the company into a global agribusiness powerhouse, though integration challenges and market conditions have created stock volatility. BG shares recovered 1.8% on November 5 as the company’s Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.27 beat expectations, with the completed Viterra acquisition sharply boosting volumes, driving a 67% increase in soy processing and refining profit.
However, shares of the company have increased 20.9% on a year-to-date basis but have risen only 3.7% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming the broader market. The stock has consolidated in recent weeks as investors weigh the benefits of increased scale against near-term margin pressures in key segments.
For the fiscal year ending December 2025, analysts expect Bunge’s adjusted EPS to decline 18.5% year-over-year to $7.49, reflecting the challenging operating environment for commodity processors. Nevertheless, among nine analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy” based on seven “Strong Buy” ratings and two “Holds”, indicating confidence in the company’s long-term positioning despite near-term headwinds.
Fertilizer Sector Performance
The fertilizer sector maintained prominence on agriculture sector watchlists this week, with companies like Nutrien, Mosaic, and CF Industries experiencing heightened trading volumes amid shifting commodity dynamics.
Nutrien raised full-year 2025 potash sales volume guidance to 13.9-14.5 million tonnes and lifted its global potash shipment forecast to 73-75 million tonnes for 2025, citing strong affordability and low channel inventories in key markets. This positive revision suggests improving fundamentals in the potash market, with industry forecasts pointing to global potash shipments rising to roughly 74-77 million tonnes in 2026.
However, fertilizer stocks face a complex outlook. While demand appears robust, pricing pressures remain a concern. The stocks remain highly cyclical, with performance closely tied to crop prices and farmer purchasing power, both of which have been under pressure in 2025.
Commodity Price Dynamics
Underlying commodity prices continue to exert downward pressure on the agricultural sector. The December price for corn stood at $4.23 per bushel, up 16 cents from the prior month but down 57 cents from December 2023. Similarly, soybeans priced at $9.79 per bushel were 5 cents lower than November and $3.31 lower than December a year earlier. Wheat prices came in at $5.49 per bushel, up 4 cents from November but down $1.30 from December 2023.
These year-over-year declines in major crop prices have cascading effects throughout the agricultural value chain. Lower crop receipts directly impact farm income, which in turn reduces farmers’ ability to invest in new equipment, premium seeds, and fertilizers. This demand destruction has been the primary driver of weak performance across agricultural equipment manufacturers and input suppliers.
Adding complexity to the commodity picture, wheat prices moved moderately higher following comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting one way to stop Ukrainian drone attacks would be to “cut Ukraine off from the sea”, highlighting how geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region continue to influence grain markets.
Trade and Export Concerns
U.S.-China trade relations remain a critical uncertainty for agricultural markets. Following China’s pledge to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. by the end of 2025, the country has only booked around a quarter of that volume so far, raising serious questions about whether Beijing will fulfill its commitments.
The pricing dynamics further complicate the situation. Even if China lifts its 10% retaliatory tariff, U.S. soybeans are still priced 70 to 80 cents higher than Brazilian soybeans, making American exports uncompetitive absent significant price adjustments or policy interventions. This structural disadvantage has persisted throughout 2025 and shows little sign of improving in the near term.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
From a broader market perspective, Deere & Company, Corteva, Cal-Maine Foods, Valmont Industries, Bunge Global, and Gates Industrial were among the agriculture stocks with the highest dollar trading volume during the first week of December, indicating continued investor focus on large-cap, liquid names within the sector.
Agricultural stocks remain in a defensive posture as we move deeper into December. The sector faces the challenge of balancing cyclical weakness against valuations that in many cases reflect expectations for eventual recovery. Key catalysts for improved performance would include stabilization in commodity prices, resolution of trade uncertainties with China, and clearer visibility into farm income trends for 2026.
Analyst Perspectives and Forward Outlook
Wall Street’s view on agriculture stocks remains cautiously positioned. Most analysts maintain “Hold” or “Buy” ratings on major names, with price targets generally suggesting modest upside from current levels. The consensus view holds that 2025-2026 represents a cyclical trough, with potential for meaningful recovery as equipment replacement cycles mature and commodity prices stabilize.
However, significant headwinds persist. Tariff impacts, particularly affecting companies like Deere, create margin pressure that will take time to mitigate through pricing actions or operational efficiencies. Additionally, the structural shift in China’s sourcing patterns away from U.S. agricultural commodities toward South American suppliers represents a longer-term challenge that cannot be quickly reversed.
Conclusion
The first week of December 2025 saw agriculture stocks treading water as investors balanced near-term operational challenges against longer-term recovery potential. While specific companies showed resilience through dividend increases, guidance raises, or strategic restructuring announcements, the sector as a whole remains constrained by fundamental headwinds including weak commodity prices, compressed farm incomes, and trade uncertainties.
Investors in agricultural equities face a patience test. The sector’s essential role in global food security and the cyclical nature of agricultural markets suggest that current conditions will eventually improve. However, the timing and magnitude of that recovery remain uncertain, with most indicators pointing toward 2026 as the potential inflection point. For now, agriculture stocks continue to consolidate, waiting for clearer signals that the worst of the downturn has passed and that sustainable recovery is taking root.